it’s more about the Supreme Leader transition which determines how the regime gets run.

[noumoe]

If Raisi is indeed dead, the key takeaway is not really who succeeds him (that’s the 1st VP Mohammad Mokhber, but only as a caretaker for 50 days before an election).

It’s the fact that the next Supreme Leader is most likely Ali Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei.

Internal pundits had believed the competition to succeed Khamenei as Supreme Leader was down to Mojtaba and Raisi. If Raisi is dead, Mojtaba becomes heir apparent.

The post of President is relatively unimportant - it’s more for domestic affairs, not national security and ideological direction.

The Assembly of Experts, an 88-person body, appoints the next Supreme Leader upon the death or vacancy in office of the Supreme Leader.

A question is whether anyone else would rise to challenge Mojtaba in the internal machinations. If not, it’s his for the taking.

And then we are set for the Islamic Republic to open itself up (rightly) to accusations that it has effectively become a hereditary monarchy - just in radical Islamic clothing.

This would make it harder for the regime to differentiate itself from its predecessor Pahlavi government, which is becoming viewed more favorably in retrospect by Iranians today.



Also, worth clarifying that the position of President of Iran is NOT the head leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran. That is the Supreme Leader, currently Ali Khamenei.

An approximate organizational chart is below - the President oversees the cabinet of mostly domestic agencies



In terms of the election to replace Raisi, it’s a bit early to tell who would be running for that spot since Presidential elections weren’t slated until next year.

Not anyone can run - all candidates must be vetted by the regime’s Guardian Council. Last election, the GC disqualified over 600 candidates, leaving only seven on the ballot - making it a fairly pre-determined outcome.

Accordingly, voter participation in these sham elections has been plummeting of late, the last runoff election a couple months ago seeing <10% turnout (though the last presidential election still at 48.4% turnout).

Now the 12-person Guardian Council pretty much picks the winner. Those members are half appointed by the Supreme Leader, and the other half appointed by the parliament (from a pre-approved list).

So the gist is that the Supreme Leader and his cronies basically pick the replacement president. That’s why it’s not a huge deal about Raisi himself dying, if that’s true - it’s more about the Supreme Leader transition which determines how the regime gets run.




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